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Varying Investment Grade Return Drivers Highlight Value of a Global Approach

So far this year, the composition of total returns from investment grade (IG) credit has varied meaningfully across geographies. Canadian IG has delivered a modest 1.4% total return, driven almost entirely by tighter credit spreads (dark blue shaded bar), with minimal contribution from interest rates (light blue shaded bar). In contrast, US IG has generated nearly a 4% total return, with the lion’s share (3.2%) coming from lower bond yields – highlighting the notable outperformance of US rates relative to Canadian rates. Meanwhile, European IG returns of 2.5% have been more balanced, with both spreads and rates contributing somewhat evenly.

These diverging drivers of return reveal the distinct fundamental and technical forces shaping each regional market and underscore the value of being an active manager with a global opportunity set. Rather than taking a uniform approach, we’ve been able to tactically differentiate where we take credit spread versus interest rate (duration) exposure. This has allowed us to participate meaningfully in the outperformance of European credit spreads in the first half of 2025, while also benefiting from the rally in US duration.