Market Commentary
Easing inflation and a normalizing labour market during the third quarter triggered rate cuts across global central banks. Most notably, the US Federal Reserve (“the Fed”) lowered rates in September for the first time since 2020. However, more recently, enthusiasm for a Goldilocks soft landing has gained steam, especially after the latest blowout US jobs report reinforced the resilience of the US economy. This data has led to more tame monetary easing expectations, with markets now projecting ~2 rate cuts for the remainder of 2024 from the Fed and the Bank of Canada.
With the US presidential election only about a month away, we expect market focus will soon shift, likely reducing risk as we get closer to election day. Additionally, markets have been surprisingly nonchalant about ongoing geopolitical unrest in the Middle East and Ukraine, choosing rather to focus on Fed-driven optimism. In our view, the likelihood of escalation is too uncertain to ignore, and we look to embed modest additional downside protection.
Overall, fixed income continues to be in vogue as we head into the end of the year, and we expect another strong quarter for fixed income, supported by an eager and diverse buyer base. While valuations may dampen, we continue to see individual opportunities within credit where we can tactically add value. We are generally moving up in credit quality and exploring opportunities to add downside protection amid the likelihood of continued volatility. While the market seems enthusiastically optimistic, our team continues to be cautiously optimistic, mindful that a number of risks could evolve over the next quarter but attuned to compelling opportunities that may spring up in this environment.